Contingency or conditionality? How the ‘yellow economy’ must transform itself for survival
The article is part of the 'Hong Kong Anti-extradition Demonstrations: One Year Ago Today' initiative which aims to raise awareness for the movement and also to debunk some myths regarding the movement’s origins and core elements.
This article forms part of the five-part investigation conducted around the ‘yellow economic circle’. For more information regarding the movement’s origins, impacts, sustainability and debates over its economic versus political classification, please refer to the links below.
NEWS articles:
INSIGHT articles:
OPINION articles
Image Source: AP Photos
Due to the movement’s lack of singular purpose and consciousness, high levels of doubt have been cast on the ‘yellow economic circle’ over its long-term sustainability. However, participants of the movement remain hopeful as they source their own solutions to the sustainability question.
The sustainability debate
The movement is commonly believed to be highly unsustainable in the long-term. Due to heavy reliance on the Mainland for trade and exports, it would be difficult to establish a completely ‘yellow’ supply chain and would be impossible for the movement to achieve complete self-sufficiency. Thus, hindering its ability to establish an independent economy.
Further qualification of its identity as an ‘economic circle’ can be made due to its activities being limited to ‘low-risk’ market segments, like those of food and retail industries. Despite its modest levels of success, it should be noted that these industries not only have high substitution rates and only make up a few percent of Hong Kong’s GDP. The main makeup of Hong Kong’s economy is formed of the financial and insurance sectors, professional services and real estate. Due to many of these having large capitals, some even being Chinese-funded and maintaining close relations with the Mainland, these enterprises will remain unscathed by the ‘yellow effect’.
Instead, speculators conclude that the ‘yellow economic circle’ will only continue to harm the small enterprises and businesses in Hong Kong. Most participating entities in the ‘yellow economy’ are small businesses and enterprises that mainly service the local community and neighbourhood. Predictions of high levels of unemployment and greater socio-political tearing denounce the ‘yellow economic circle’ as a self-defeating movement which will only increase the economic struggle and result in economic decline.
However, the impossibility of the movement’s survival is not definite. When approached as an economic phenomenon, the movement’s survival is identifiably dependent on its economic coverage and scale. In order to guarantee its long-term sustainability, emphasis must be placed on the maximum utilisation of its current talent resources and strategic manipulation of its financial means.
Despite seemingly restrained by its activities in the catering and retail sectors, supporters of the movement are from a multitude of backgrounds and industry sectors. The vast expanse of supporters of the ‘yellow economic circle’ has provided the movement with a strong set of talent that collectively are then able to further the cause through the utilisation of their own personal agencies.
Image Source: AP Photos
Additionally, when factoring in the funds raised during the anti-extradition demonstrations as well as those held in various ‘yellow’ District Councils, there estimates a total of 200 million Hong Kong Dollars raised from the activities combined. The movement is by no means lacking in financial funds but the challenge remains when assessing its distribution.
Compelling arguments have been made for the transferal of funds into a means of investment. By dividing the funds into two sets, one kept in cash for litigation and making appeals, the other can be used to set up a holding company, investing in different ‘yellow’ enterprises. Due to its privatisation, it not only reduces the risk of police/government interference but further establishes a means of stable financial support. It enables the movement to comply with its primary aim of supporting the demonstrations as well as undergo expansion projects; introducing shareholders and chain groups. Through building their own large consortium, the movement is able to better survive the economic struggle and level with the competition.
The ‘yellow economic circle’ has received varying degrees of contention over its survival. From initial dismissal as a potential force to be reckoned with by the officials to the recognition of its existence and condemnation of the ‘yellow effect,’ the efficacy of the movement is obvious enough but does this bode well for its long-term sustainability? Ultimately, the sentiment remains that the survival of the ‘yellow economic circle’ in Hong Kong relies considerably on an economic approach to consolidation of its entities.
Editors' Note: As a blanket disclaimer for the entire ‘Hong Kong Anti-Extradition Demonstrations: One Year Ago Today’ initiative, we will not be disclosing the identities of any of the contributors to the initiative. We thank everyone who has submitted a piece of their own work and we apologise for not being able to openly accredit you for your contributions.