Resurgence of Violence in Kashmir - A Conflict in the Works?
Thumbnail by ATUL LOKE | Credit: NYT
Surrounded by the Himalayan peaks and dotted with glistening lakes, the natural beauty of Kashmir is betrayed by the conflicts that have plagued the region. Following a period of relative peace, violence is once again brewing. Since the beginning of October Kashmir has seen 33 deaths, which included 11 civilians. These victims primarily belonged to the minority Hindu group in Muslim-dominated Kashmir. Most had been targeted by militants from The Resistance Front (TRF), one of the handful of militant organizations in Kashmir who are fighting for either Kashmiri rights to self-determination or Pakistani sovereignty over Kashmir.
Given the geopolitical significance of Kashmir to both India and Pakistan, the renewed violence undoubtedly deserves our attention and warrants a closer look into current developments and how the situation may unfold.
THE HISTORY BEHIND THE REGION
Historically, Kashmir was a vassal state under the control of a local ruler in alliance with the British Raj, territories otherwise known as princely states. It was during the tumultuous Partition of India in 1947 that the seeds of perpetual conflict were sown in Kashmir.
After the creation of the Dominion of India and the Dominion of Pakistan, princely states in the subcontinent, which had not previously been under the jurisdiction of the British colonial masters, were offered a choice of remaining independent or joining either nation. The Maharaja - the Hindi term for ruler - of Jammu and Kashmir, Hari Singh, wished for independence. But the subsequent chaos that arose from the separation halted this possibility. Pashtun rebels backed by Pakistan invaded Kashmir, which at the time was also plagued with a rebellion from the Muslims in Poonch who were discontented with the Maharaja’s rule. Under such circumstances, Hari Singh sought India’s support. While India eventually dispatched its troops, this came at the expense of Kashmiri independence. With the signing of the Instrument of Accession by Maharaja Hari Singh in October 1947, Kashmir officially joined the Dominion of India and was accorded special status within the Indian constitution. They were granted autonomy over most administrative proceedings, except for communication, foreign affairs and defence.
However, it was perhaps the Maharaja’s decision to enlist India’s help which spelt more trouble for Kashmir as this precipitated into the Indo-Pakistani War of 1947-1948, which by its end saw the establishment of a Line of Control (LoC) that split Kashmir into two separate regions. While the line has seen changes with the two subsequent wars as well as occasional skirmishes, it has otherwise permanently divided Kashmir into two distinct portions – the Northwest administered by Pakistan and the South, by India.
This is the Kashmir observers are familiar with today.
WHAT IS HAPPENING AMIDST THE INCREASED VIOLENCE?
There have been concerns that the current situation mirrors the tumultuous days of the 1990s. Then, increased acts of savage violence perpetrated against the local Hindu minority, also known as Kashmiri Pandits, saw a mass exodus of the community from the region. Those who had chosen to remain speak of sleepless nights during the episode, for fear that militants would kill them as they slept.
And it seems concerns that current developments will be a déjà-vu of the 1990s are playing out - media outlets have reported large numbers of Hindus and migrant workers leaving to avoid becoming targets for the militants. Numbering 300,000 prior to the insurgency of the 1990s, the Kashmir Pandit community now stands at approximately 3000 to 5000 strong. With the renewed wave of departures, it further reduces the size of the already small community. This only accentuates the insecurities and inconveniences faced by those who are adamant not to be displaced by tensions in the region.
In confronting the immediate threat, India’s security forces have been conducting widespread manhunts and engaging in gunfights with the militants, further adding to casualty numbers.
A POSSIBLE ESCALATION OF THE CONFLICT?
Avinash Paliwal, a South Asia expert at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies speaks of damaging ‘political effects’ that the killings might have on the Indian government when wider geopolitical developments are factored into consideration. Could the current situation thus escalate further into a conflict between the two neighbours, for which there is precedence?
In 2019, following a car bomb attack orchestrated by the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad militant group which killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel, the Indian Air Force retaliated by conducting airstrikes across the LoC – the first in close to 50 years. In a tit-for-tat, Pakistan similarly launched airstrikes a day later. A subsequent dogfight resulted in the downing and capture of a pilot from the Indian Air Force. Tensions were high and Pakistan had reportedly even deployed tanks to the border at one point in the skirmish.
Evidently with its tendency for conflict to not only break out but also escalate, Kashmir is a powder keg. Therefore, fears that the current situation, while still tame, could spiral into a more expansive conflict are not unfounded nor irrational.
Yet, while it would be reckless to discount the potential for the current bloodshed to escalate into a larger conflict, accounting for the context of the current situation may allow observers who are keeping tabs on developments to rest easier.
As previously mentioned, India’s security response to the present situation has remained limited to targeted manhunts and detainments. There are no clear indications that this may escalate anytime soon. Local media has even reported that India’s security forces are going in for a ‘final assault to flush out militants’, which may signal an intention to conclude the increased violence as opposed to evolving it into an interstate conflict, contrary to the developments in 2019.
Furthermore, the 2019 conflict had broken out likely as a result of two integral factors – (1) the initial suicide attack had deliberately targeted personnel associated with the Indian state and (2) the 2019 Indian general elections were just around the corner when the attack was conducted. The escalation from a terror attack to interstate fighting could have thus been an attempt by India’s ruling party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, to shore up support by responding in a strong-handed manner. These contextual factors are simply not present in the most recent episode of violence.
Looking at the bigger picture, it would not be in India’s interest to escalate this crisis, or any crisis in Kashmir, either. The militant nature that disputes over Kashmir have taken on since the 1980s has converted it into a grey-zone conflict. While India has repeatedly accused Pakistan of supporting the militant groups operating within its territory, this is a claim Pakistan has consistently denied. In fact, following the 2019 border skirmish, the Pakistani government had even moved to shut down offices of the group responsible for the deadly attack on India’s paramilitary personnel. The plausible deniability of the Pakistanis means that an initiative by India to escalate the conflict under the belief that these militant groups are backed by Pakistan could only result in it losing the court of public opinion in the long-standing confrontation over the territory. India had already received much backlash over its contentious decision in 2019 to strip Kashmir of its autonomous status. More of such transgressions could spark increased international scrutiny of its actions in the region and be counterproductive to its goal of consolidating control.
THE NUCLEAR ELEMENT
Given that both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed states, lurking in the background of any conflict between the two is the likelihood of nuclear war. But to be sure, the current situation has largely remained free of discourse surrounding the bigger tension between the two states. This fortunately leaves room to discount the likelihood of nuclear weapons featuring anytime soon.
Furthermore, India has previously declared a ‘no-first use’ policy. While Pakistan has yet to do the same, it has stated that nuclear weapons will only be used as a ‘last resort’ when conventional means fail. Certainly, with the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction, the likelihood of a skirmish leading into a nuclear conflict becomes more remote.
Yet - to take liberties with the cliché - we should not let a good crisis go to waste. The recent, unexplained, uptick of violence should serve as an important reminder that beyond the tensions between Russia and the United States or between India and China – tensions that come to mind first in popular imaginations of nuclear conflict - Kashmir is an oft overlooked flashpoint for nuclear war. Even more so given the neighbours’ historical animosity and propensity to engage in conflict. Besides, despite the assurances from both sides that nuclear weapons are a last resort, no one can be certain that cooler heads will prevail in the fog of war – a scenario one paper offers a realistic look into.
Commentaries on Kashmir often centre around its propensity for conflict, adding to the obscurity of its natural beauty. Yet, with all the historical baggage and the resulting permanence of tensions, one can only hope that peace will one day be finally restored, and the region returned to its place as the Shangri-La 17th Century Mughal Emperor Jahangir had once alluded to - “If there is heaven on earth, it is here… it is here… it is here”.
Sources
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/20/explainer-kashmir-recent-surge-violence-hindus-migrant-workers
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/kashmir-conflict-how-did-it-start
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-35923237
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/19/india-kashmir-attacks-non-locals-migrant-workers-exodus-civilians
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-35923237
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/20/explainer-kashmir-recent-surge-violence-hindus-migrant-workers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50826419
https://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/IndiaPakistanBullAtomSci.pdf
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